Job-Market Paper: "Learning, Uncertainty, and the Decision to Hire: Evidence from Street Food Vendors in Tanzania" with Alan Ker and Mywish Maredia.
Abstract: Informal micro- and small enterprises account for the largest share of employment in many lower-income countries, yet we know little about how firm age shapes their hiring. We ask whether owners’ prior experience changes the effect of firm age on labor demand. A large literature, mostly from higher-income countries, finds that firm age reduces job creation but does not examine whether prior experience moderates this relationship. Drawing on the same Jovanovic selection model and Bayesian updating mechanics as past studies, we show how differences in owners’ initial beliefs can explain why prior experience would change the effect of firm age. We test this among street food firms in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, using four measures of experience (employee, manager, same-sector, and out-of-sector). We find that the age-employment relationship differs when owners have prior experience. In particular, firms aged 4 to 6 years with experienced owners hire significantly more labor. Our findings are relevant to policies for incentivizing job growth and government authorities evaluating street vendors' role in changing urban landscapes.
Peer-Reviewed Articles
Rutledge Z., Martin P., Ayoub S., Hall M. 2026. "Potential Wage Bill Implications of the New AEWR Methodology for H-2A Workers." Choices.
Belton B., Cho A., Hall M., Minten B., Reardon T. 2025. “Wholesalers and the Transformation of Myanmar's Maize Value Chains.” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 47(1): 125–153.
Extension/Outreach Articles
Rutledge Z., Martin P., Hall M. 2026. "H-2A Changes Could Reduce H-2A Wages by $100 Million in 2026." ARE Update 29(4).
Rutledge Z., Hall M. 2026. "What the new AEWR rule means for Michigan’s H-2A employers." Michigan Ag Economist.
Report Chapters
Ricardo Espinoza, Michael Hall, and Laura Reznikova, OECD Centre for Skills. “OECD Skills Strategy Tlaxcala (Mexico). Assessment and Recommendations.” Chapter 4. OECD. 2021
Work In Progress
Vivian Moralesa, Deyanira Nevárez Martínez, and Michael Hall. "When Housing Depends on Work: Women Farmworkers and Service Provider Brokerage in West Michigan" Under Review.
Abstract: Housing is integral to agricultural work, yet workers’ access to a home may depend on the same employer relationship that provides their income. This qualitative study examines how women farmworkers in West Michigan navigate rental and employer-provided housing and how service providers help them access resources. We conducted semi-structured interviews with 13 farmworkers and providers working with migrant and seasonal farmworker communities. A thematic analysis examined rental access, employer-linked housing, participants’ accounts of changes associated with H-2A hiring, and institutional assistance. Workers described high deposits, rental screening barriers, unresolved repairs, and the difficulty of coordinating housing, employment, and family responsibilities. Some described stable and satisfactory grower housing, while others explained how dependence on an employer could make it difficult to raise concerns or retain housing after a job changed. Several participants associated H-2A hiring with reduced work or housing opportunities for migrant families, although experiences varied across workplaces. Providers helped workers through outreach, applications, referrals, material aid, and adaptations to service schedules. These acts of brokerage made services more accessible but could not overcome a shortage of housing or decisions controlled by employers and landlords. The findings show how housing structures participation in agricultural labor and clarify both the value and the limits of institutional brokerage.
"Efficiency, Compensation, and Shadow Wages within Tanzanian Street Food Firms" with Alan Ker, Mywish Maredia, and Kajal Gulati.
Abstract: Self-employment is an important source of income for many urban poor individuals. However, few studies measure the efficiency of these enterprises. This paper uses stochastic frontier analysis to estimate the technical and allocative efficiency of Tanzanian street food firms. The results explore the determinants of street vendor efficiency. We also derive estimates of the marginal revenue productivity of labor and compare these estimates to wage compensation. Results attest to the welfare benefits that self-employment in street vending can offer the urban poor. For employer firms, we test if gaps between the value of marginal productivity of labor and compensation differ with gender, firm size, or other employee characteristics. \\[1.0ex]
"Housing, Work, and Utility-Wage Equivalents: Exploring the Subjective Well-Being of Michigan Farm Workers" with Zachariah Rutledge and Alan Ker.
Abstract: Migrant and seasonal farm workers comprise an important share of the U.S. farm labor force. The growth of the H-2A visa program has brought additional workers from other countries to the U.S. on temporary visas to work for employers who must provide housing. The economic literature has rarely approached the utility workers derive from amenities that employers are required (or choose) to offer, despite evidence that happier and healthier workers are more productive. This paper uses variation in migration status and living conditions to extend the subjective well-being literature into agriculture. We regress housing conditions (crowding, temperature control), work conditions (work task, hours, safety), and wages on farm workers' subjective well-being. The result is an amenity-by-amenity utility-wage equivalent that can inform policymakers and employers interested in farm worker satisfaction.